Not sure which consensus you're driving at ... the debate about a west coast pipeline and shipping oil, or the hype about US O&G "security" for 100 years. On the former there doesn't appear to be a majority yet. The battle is still being fought. BC media are saturated with ads touting the benefits of a pipeline. The money being spent is dwarfing grass-roots opposition.
BC is the most seismically active region in Canada. Billions are being spent in preparation for the Big One, with an expectation of of tsunamis on the same scale as seen recently in Japan, or even larger. The BC coastline - indeed coastline from California to Alaska - will drop more than a meter in places. The effect on pipelines, docks, onshore tanks, oil transfer facilities, moored and tied-up tankers will be enormous -- not to mention the consequence of tsunami waves on shipping in coastal areas where waves funneled between islands will reach even greater heights than in the open sea.
Message 28126275
Regardless of seismic risk and tsunamis, what about a good old-fashioned storm? Something that escaped mainstream media here was the linkage between this and much-criticized "safety measures" for tankers (two tugs, double-hulled, pilots, etc.). The fact is that the tugs couldn't hold the vessel in a Pacific NW storm. Couldn't hold it -- and it was smaller than a tanker, especially one broadside to the wind. If it had been a VLCC there would have been enormous damage. The only reason Kulluk's grounding wasn't a disaster? It was hardened for arctic drilling. Its strength far exceeded that of a tanker, which would have broken up.
Off BC's coast, such storms are common.
In general the battle is unfolding along predictable lines. Whether grass-roots opposition can defeat big-spending alliances between governments and corporate sponsors remains to be seen.
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WRT supposed US O&G security, on another thread I've posted for years on this Great Delusion. Contradicting religious belief incited incredible acrimony. Mostly (but not with complete agreement) this Naked Capitalism piece summarizes many years of SI posts:
Peak Oil, The Shale Boom and our Energy Future
nakedcapitalism.com
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Consensus? There is none.
Regards,
Jim |
