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Strategies & Market Trends : The Ego Forum
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From: hubris333/14/2013 12:20:28 PM
1 Recommendation   of 12175
 
Big Increase in COT OI yesterday, + 8832. .................. .............................

Broke out up over previous high range. Usually that is a good thing as we need buying support behind a market to take it higher. However, recently (left hand box), we saw a BIG jump up in OI as POG was fading and the increase in OI was shorts loading up to take a run at POG...leading to the BIG washout (1650s to 1550s). So one tends to have a jaundiced eye towards yesterday's expansion of OI.



Sure enough, today once the, Hong Market closed our buddies in London started smacking POG down...



This lasted until the boyz at the Comex got their first cup of coffee. So either the shorts in London had no conviction, or the boys on the Comex ran them out of their positions.



Notice how most of the price recovered, BEFORE the LBA market closed. Sure looks like none of those shorts were willing to hold past the close. If that is the case, then that is what we like to see, little conviction on the short side. Does that mean they shorts won't try again? Nope, they very could give it another shot.

Next week as we edge closer to the callable date for the Apr contracts we should see that OI accelerate down. Key will be if OI rotates forward or is it just specs who wander off to play somewhere else. So that period of traditional weakness is ripe for a little push down to see what happens.

Yesterday's OI increase was mostly driven by new adds to the Jun OI. We'll watch for teh point that Jun takes over leadership - a net 100K contracts from now. [any combination of Apr losses and Jun adds]



What do others see in these chicken bones? voodoo?
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