Geoffrey: “1. They are either unwilling or unable to provide good data on the breakdown of sales. You get this "up 319% over year ago 5 months" sort of stuff, but no simple spreadsheet of quarter by quarter sale in each segment, or the absolute numbers.”
Good question (as are your others). I think the situation is that the antenna sales are still small – but far larger %-age-wise than before the FPU plan was established. Is this not what one would expect for a newly introduced product? The FPU plan is essentially a re-start – the first attempt being a normal one; the second an innovative one that takes advantage of the small size and light weight of the MTX-180. Offering the unit for prompt-delivery, one-time use (for a “handsome” fee) gets around the frozen-purchasing stance of hospitals (due to the ongoing, severe recession). Removing the spending restriction issue is evidently allowing a more-or-less normal introductory period – but normal introductions are still far from immediate; substantial required time can be expected. What is expected to happen for the MTX-180 is revealed – and substantiated – by the new contracts with several distributers; especially the one basically agreed on and about to be finalized by a major, worldwide distributor.
“2. Science guys are great, but best for investors is when a business guy is in charge. “
Wolcott IS a business guy –and has a track record re medical ventures. Ditto for Bill Barth – and the two have worked together before. Earlier, their talents might have been wasted – microwave hyperthermia and ablation not yet far enough along in development for strong business expansion – but, now, the timing appears right.
“3. Why has not Kaiser Permanente or other large organization put in an order for the machines? A rhetorical question. I suspect they want greater proof of efficacy.”
I don’t know what KP is thinking, but Cancer Centers of America does –for some time, now -- recognize the importance of microwave therapy for cancer; and they have been a major customer. And, for the 2000 series, strong proof of safety, lack of side effects, and efficacy are being clearly established by numerous trials. For the BSD-500 (surface and near-surface cancers), FDA approval was granted quite a while back. The MTX-180 is also FDA approved.
“All that said, it does seem that progress is being made in doing studies for the large machines and in selling the MicroThermX® Microwave Ablation system.”
Yes – and clearly so. But, the medical “mills” grind slowly.
“Also they report being close on a large distribution in Europe contract.
I have the feeling that if the company takes off soon it will be due to the Ablation System being touted by word of mouth by happy patients.”
I agree! And add: the relatively quick adoption of the MTX-180 by several distributors – at least one of them large – is strong proof that the MTX-180 is seen as important. Why not? Interventional Oncology is known to be an established, rapidly growing market – and the MTX-180 is a proven, outstanding development for that market. Microwave ablation is proven to be far better and safer than radiofrequency ablation – and RFA is presently the IO market leader by a wide margin.
“Pleo is enchanted by the prospect for a major new way of treating cancer. It is an enchanting prospect. As for the chance of this being a make-your-retirement investment, who knows. I have taken a position based on business judgment, but I have been wrong many times before. Even if you think you are getting good odds, a throw of the dice is a throw of the dice.”
It may not seem so, but Pleo is hard-headed re new medical products. The proof of safety and efficacy for BSD M's products is from many independent sources: Phase 3 and other trials – and effusive endorsements from leading cancer-treatment doctors. Risk free? NO. But, I see a rare combination of *very* high returns and reasonably *low* risk.
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