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Strategies & Market Trends : The Ego Forum
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To: ames who wrote (11945)3/19/2013 11:51:11 PM
From: hubris331 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 12175
 
eh, unless someone edu-macates me different, me thinks the projections many are making about the USA being "energy independent" in a decade or so are red herrings. While we many be independent from a BTU perspective or from an "oil-equivalent" perspective I do not think we will be oil independent.

Problem is that in their enthusiasm over the shale gas craze, many convert natural gas to oil-equivalents. Now that might be a useful trick as to simplify BTU contents, cash flows, reserves or reservoir values it is a false move. Natural Gas can not directly replace gasoline in our transportation sector on a one-for-one basis or on an EQ basis. Our energy independence is really a question of oil imports to make gasoline (and diesel) for transportation.

It isn't clear to me that we are increasing oil (gasoline raw material) production by an amount great enough to offset oil imports.

The only way we get there is drill the heck out of the North Slope, GOM, off shore Atlantic & Pacific AND greatly reduce demand by forcing the transportation fleet to be 50% or more All Electric Vehicles - ie Nissan Leaf (Chevy Volt won't cut it!) Since I don't see the current administration permitting all that drilling...that leaves us with....

So a long way around of saying that I disagree with the statement that "new drilling tech will threaten to undermine OPEC's quotas and prices in the 2nd half of the decade."

er, OK, what am I missing, where is the ignorance in these statements?
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