Thanks, interesting article. Here is the projection for autos:
" In another reference to Li-ion, Visco pointed out that there are many large, reputable sources for the microporous membrane of a Li-ion cell. In the case of a Li-sulfur membrane the only two sources are Ohara, and now Corning. That’s why, when asked how soon a PolyPlus battery - whether it turns out to be Li-sulfur or Li-air first - will make it inside an EV, Visco notes that it took almost 20 years for Li-ion to power EVs. “Now, in our case I think that can be done quicker,” he said. “But nevertheless, I just had this discussion with Johnson Controls. They think that if we can introduce a commercial rechargeable product in 4-5 years, that we should be looking at EV applications in 10, which would be twice as fast as what was done with lithium-ion. But Johnson Controls is very committed to EV technology. That is their future.”
So, 10 years to get the first cars out as I read it. Then you have the issue of providing the distribution network (e.g. like gas station infrastructure), so that you can recharge from electricity I would presume...? (could not figure out from article how you exactly go about recharging). You also have the issue of replacing the existing auto fleet. No one is going to ditch their existing auto that is just 1 to 3 years old. Car dealers are also going to need train a whole new generation of car mechanics for when these vehicles break down.
In my mind, that is minimum 20 years from now, if everything goes right. There is likely no easy way to transition from gas vehicles to battery vehicles. From first commercial EV application at 10 years from now, it will likely take another 10 years to build up the infrastructure to support these new vehicles... |
