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Pastimes : 2013 NCAA College Basketball March Madness
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To: Jim McMannis who wrote (242)3/22/2013 11:39:55 AM
From: Bill  Read Replies (1) of 484
 
I actually picked New Mexico based solely on a probability formula called log5 that Bill James popularized in his first baseball abstract. It is a variation of an older mathematical model for pairwise comparison. It gave NM an 83.3% chance of winning its game against Harvard.

But of course, it didn't work.

This is another case where the forecast was mathematically correct but the actual result was wrong. Reality is such a bitch.
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