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Technology Stocks : Texas Instruments - Good buy now or should we wait?
TXN 195.59+1.2%12:49 PM EST
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To: Thomas G. Busillo who wrote (2313)12/4/1997 5:35:00 PM
From: pat mudge  Read Replies (3) of 6180
 
Tom --

I'm relatively new to TXN, having been pulled in the side door when it bought Amati, but I'm wondering if politics are playing a part in the recent COMS/ADI announcement.

<<<But the 1998 estimate goes down 20% on the worry over COMS? Is there the possibility that whatever "inventory correction" COMS is undertaking will not take the entire FY'98? Or is there some kind of assumption that their modem sales are going in the tank?>>>

It's fairly well know that USR and AMTX went tooth and toenail over their ADSL licensing negotiations and in the end both walked away --- stories vary on who was nastier to whom --- and USR later chose ADI's DMT over AMTX-TI's C6X/ADSL. Now, with TI buying AMTX I don't know how the playing field changes, but I do know TI is working very closely with Siemens and they'll be the preferred vendor when the ADSL chips come out.

But, you say, the COMS/TI/ADI contracts were for 56K. True enough. But 56K appears to be in trouble due to the standard's battle and ADSL is breathing down its neck, so if COMS (b/c of USR)is going with ADI in order to gain an advantage (threat) over TI, it might be a ploy in a larger battle.

Then again, I could be way out in left field. It wouldn't be the first time. :)

Regards,

Pat

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