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Technology Stocks : Western Digital (WDC)
WDC 163.33+3.5%Nov 28 9:30 AM EST
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To: William T. Katz who wrote (8018)12/4/1997 6:29:00 PM
From: Pierre-X  Read Replies (1) of 11057
 
Re: MR Transition

Thanks for taking time to hash this out with me. I'd much rather lose money in thought experiments than out of my brokerage account. <g> Lord knows I've already been beat up pretty good this year. <puke>

There are examples of industries that get built up by "pioneer" companies that take all the risks, formulate the concepts, unearth all the unexpected problems and obstacles, develop the technologies and customer bases, and establish the viability of the products. I like to call this the "fighting the Indians" stage, although I guess that's not PC these days. <g> Anyway, these pioneer companies then get run over by "settler" companies that do the same thing except better, and in volume.

It's not ridiculous to characterize the situation with MR this way, placing QNTM and IBM in the "pioneer" role and RDRT/WDC in the "settler" role.

Now I'm not saying that's what the deal is -- I'm just saying this is a possibility to consider. Remember that one reason WDC intentionally delayed transition to MR was to let their competitors run into all the transition problems. I'd wager that making the transition now--after others have already climbed the learning curve--is the best time to make a transition.

On the flip side, WDC is now discovering that they delayed too long and has to rush the transition. "Haste makes waste," said Poor Richard.

PX
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