The following is a schedule of the upcoming Select Fund distributions. On these three Fridays, those funds that are issuing distributions will see a decline in their N.A.V. equal to the amount of the distribution. If your account is set up to reinvest your distributions, the additional shares should be credited to your account on the following Monday.
Friday, December 5th --- Paper & Forest, Regional Banks, Retailing, Software, Technology, Telecommunications and Transportation.
Friday, December 12th --- American Gold, Biotechnology, Electronics, Energy, Energy Services, Environmental Services, Financial Services, Food & Agriculture, Health Care, Industrial Equipment, Industrial Materials, Insurance, Leisure, Medical Delivery, Multimedia, Natural Resources, Precious Metals and Utilities Growth.
Friday, December 19th --- Air Transportation, Automotive, Brokerage, Chemicals, Computers, Construction, Consumer Industries, Defense & Aerospace, Developing Communications and Home Finance.
Just a couple of thoughts on the high tech sectors. The major obstacle that they are facing at this time is, of course, the uncertainty over the timing and extent of the impact that their business linkage with Asia will produce. One school of thought is that they will not be affected that much, and that their domestic sales and earnings, along with the reduced cost of the materials that they obtain from the Middle East, will more than compensate for any loss of business in the Orient. The other viewpoint is that the eventual damage should not be underestimated, especially since nobody, not even the CEO's of the firms themselves, can say for sure how bad any problems will be, or when they will manifest themselves.
Things were not made any better this week when a number of relatively well known high tech firms came out with warnings about their upcoming earnings. Perhaps only some of their troubles are already a result of the Asian mess, but one would be a bit naive to assume that additional red flags will not be raised, and that these firms will be downgraded by some highly respected market and industry analysts.
In any event, this past month has been marked by a few days in a row where, for example, 70 or 80 percent of tech investors believe that things will turn out well. Those have been followed by similar stretches of time where 70 or 80 percent of traders feel that we have yet to see more than the tip of the iceberg. As a result, there has not been a steady concensus of opinion about these funds, and their prices have been vacillating up and down without making any upside progress. Unless a definitive uptrend develops, and continues for more than a few sessions without a setback, it doesn't make sense to try to chase these sectors for such short priods of time. I would advise seeking returns where the market is willing to provide them under the current rather protective modus operandi. Don't try to squeeze profits out of funds that are whipping around within a downward sloping trading range. The tech sectors will eventually be in a position to produce the types of gains that we love to see, but until then, go with the strongest sectors that are attracting the most investor attention. Over the past month, the direction we should be going in has been quite clear, and should be followed even though it offers us only nominal gains.
Bernie Kaplan |
