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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues

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To: C.K. Houston who wrote (625)12/4/1997 7:24:00 PM
From: Bill Ounce  Read Replies (1) of 9818
 
Re: Y2K and gold prices

Lots of speculation on this subject has been posted in the gold forum. Subject 15208

Personal (biased) summary:

Gold is extremely complicated as an investment. Aside from it's traditional (perhaps out-dated) role as a currency, gold now acts very much like a commodity. In the last 15 years, greater market efficiencies have greatly reduced virtually all commodity prices. In addition, Central Banks hoard years of annual global gold production, which greatly distorts the supply/demand picture.

Y2K has the potential to disrupt these market efficiencies gained in the past 15 years, so the price of all commodities may take off. But this is not necessarily converted into personal profits.

Frequently Overlooked Risks

(1) The price jump may occur only after Y2K problems leave you unable to complete profitable paper transactions.

(2) You guess right, but some entity confiscates your personal commodity hoards.

(3) You guess right, but your commodities hoard is quantized into size units that are not practical for trading purposes.

(4) Y2K causes currencies to become worthless, but people choose something other than gold as a replacement currency.

(5) You buy (expensive) rare coins, but the post-crash world views them as extravagant luxuries which reduces their value to slightly above the "melt down" value of their base metal.

Lots of ways to lose. This summary is not intended as investment advice, but is a prediction of what will happen to you if you do not obtain qualified investment advice before venturing into the commodities/futures/numismatic arena.

You might want to think before you jump :-)
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