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Strategies & Market Trends : Take the Money and Run

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To: John Pitera who wrote (17610)	4/1/2013 2:58:27 AM
From: Jorj X Mckie	1 Recommendation of 17639

Hey John, thank you...I'll take that as a compliment. I think what we are seeing is definitely a manifestation of the mass market psychology. Lots of negative sentiment out there that is truly illustrated best by what Slevin observed. Here we are on a investing and trading website and most of the time we are talking about personal lives and politics. I think that some of that is simply what is most important to us, but I think that a fair amount is inactivity with trading and investing. We've got a big wall of worry and I think that we are in the process of putting in a solid foundation for the equity market. And the fact that nobody is talking about upside tends to make me believe that we are getting ready for a significant cyclical bull market. My own personal belief is that politics will have a big impact on what happens in the equity and RE markets. We are at the beginning of Obama's second term. I do believe that there are some things that have to be wrung out in both markets. The shadow inventory of bank owned real estate has to be dealt with eventually. If I were the party in power, I wouldn't want to leave this to chance. I believe that another RE crash as that shadow inventory is liquidated will happen this year. I believe that we are going to see a run up into the summer and then a selloff in the autumn and into 2014. Why and how? The why is easy. A crash now that is followed by a recovery will be good for the democrat party. Assuming a recovery, nobody will remember the crash in 2016. Almost guarantees re-election. How? I'm not smart enough to know that. But I believe that the federal government can definitely tweak the market in such a way as to precipitate the action. Some sort of incentive for the banks to get rid of inventory. Probably something that you know more about than I.

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