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Gold/Mining/Energy : Shale Natural Gas, Oil and NGLs and ESA
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To: Celtictrader who wrote (6023)4/1/2013 4:26:01 PM
From: Celtictrader   of 6160
 
Seeking Alpha on (Sundance, Austex)

seekingalpha.com
AusTex ( ATXDY.OB) is growing substantially in 2013. It is projecting growth from ~500 boepd at the start of 2013 to ~1,400 boepd at the end of 2013, or almost 200% growth. AusTex will have similar issues sustaining growth due to its likely high corporate decline rate at that point. However, one mitigating factor for AusTex is the unusually high rate of return it achieves on its wells, which along with its low cost per well, may allow it to follow in Kodiak's footsteps and continue on a multi-year path of accelerated production growth.

One reason I mention AusTex here is that it trades at a significant discount to the valuation of the other rapidly growing companies mentioned, both on a proved reserves basis and on a "flowing barrel" basis for exit 2013. Kodiak has a proved reserve value of $1.9 billion, versus an enterprise value of $3.5 billion - so it trades at just under 2x its proved reserve value. And Sundance has a proved reserve value of $160 million, versus an enterprise value of $280 million, or also just under 2x its proved reserve value. AusTex has a proved reserve value of $198 million, versus an enterprise value of $75 million, or less than 1/2 of its proved reserve value. On a proved reserve basis, $1 of AusTex stock seems to provide the same reserve value as ~$4 of KOG or Sundance stock.
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