The report (July 2012) linked below costs $4650. Any volunteers for purchasing it? No? Well the abstract is useful, anyway – for review as well as for speculating about some estimates in it – and because BSD M. might have used it for their “$2.3 billion” estimate for the market addressed by their MTX-180 microwave ablation machine. And, even if they were referring to a different report, the data should be similar.
(BTW, I use []s, within a quoted passage, for inserting my comments or making obvious “sic” corrections – and I add ****s for highlighting. Don’t confuse these things with the actual quoted passages.)
http://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/ablation-devices-market-791.html
<Ablation Devices Market to 2016 - (Radiofrequency, Cryoablation, Microwave, Ultrasound, Hydrothermal, Radiation, Cardiac, Cancer and Gynecology) – Global Market Forecast and Trends Analysis by Technology, Devices & Applications>
<Ablation procedure refers to a minimally invasive surgical procedure which involves either destruction or removal of diseased or unnecessary tissue to cure the disease. It provides successful form of surgical option that has gradually become a popular alternative over invasive procedure amongst physicians and patients. The principal advantage of these procedures over surgery is short recovery time, short length scars, low risk of infection, less blood loss, and shorter hospital stays. >
The next part of the abstract is most interesting:
<The global ablation devices market was valued at $7.5 billion in 2011 and is poised to grow at a CAGR of 10.5% to reach $12.4 billion by 2016. The ablation market is broadly segmented into two classes, namely, thermal and non-thermal technologies. ****Thermal segment consists of technologies such as electrical, radiation, light, radiofrequency, ultrasound, microwave, and hydrothermal**** and non-thermal segment includes cryoablation and hydromechanical. Ablation devices have applications in myriad clinical areas such as cancer / tumor, cardiac, ophthalmology, urology, gynecology and orthopedics.>
BSD M. has stated $2.3 billion as the market addressed by the MTX-180 – and that figure appears consistent with the thermal segment mentioned above. Then, by the time the MTX-180 is past the introductory stages – about 2016, I assume -- it could be selling into about a $4 billion market area segment (from the above-estimated sector growth). Even more, I argue, since the MTX-180 is a major advance in microwave ablation – and Interventional Oncology overall -- so it will likely not only capture market share from the existing heat-ablation products but also from other techs, such as cryoablation. These views are consistent with (and largely drawn from) statements by leading IO doctors (for examples, search for DuPuy and Dodd and microwave ablation).
<Ablation procedures have witnessed significant growth in the recent years, which are attributable to factors such as growing healthcare expenditure, favorable demographics and cost effectiveness over tradition surgical procedures. Moreover, increasing applications in cancer and cardiac segment[s] are fueling the market growth.>
That says the cancer segment is expected to grow relatively faster – thus the market addressed by the *outstanding* MTX-180 is indicated to be significantly larger than $4 billion/yr in 2016! Does this not indicate, as an estimate, the MTX-180 might well garner something like $1 billion of that market? If not, please explain why not.
<Radiation therapy accounted for the largest share of 41% of the total ablation technologies market in 2011. The major driver of radiation therapy is the fact that it is applicable to any form of cancer ranging from soft tissue such as liver, lungs to bone metastases. Compared to most other techniques, radiation therapy is considered to be effective in all cancer scenarios, thus it is a single treatment for control of cancer used by most radiologists. ****It is expected that, radiation therapy devices will continue to enjoy the majority share in the ablation devices market for at least another decade owing to its broad scope of use, different methods of application, stable acceptance in population, and high level of awareness as compared to newly introduced ablation techniques such as hydrothermal, microwave and hydromechanical ablation.****>
I take issue with that ****d conclusion! I think radiotherapy is apt to lose share, because it is well-known to have very-substantial, unavoidable hazards – it can even cause cancer! The serious issues with radiotherapy are fundamental. They stem from the lack of a threshold for ionizing-radiation damage to cells – thus killing healthy cells as well as cancerous cells, and sometimes inducing further cancer. Also, it is difficult to kill *all* the cancerous cells with ionizing radiation. Ablation by way of heating lacks these serious issues: heating of the tumor (inherently, all cells!) to lethal levels can be localized within the tumor!! – elsewhere the temperature stays below the lethal threshold level. Further, death by temperature is also “applicable to any form of cancer ranging from soft tissue such as liver, lungs to bone metastases” – AND, without the dangers inherent in radiotherapy (including causing further cancer!). In passing, similar arguments apply to hyperthermia over chemotherapy!
The futures for hyperthermia and heat-ablation – especially by microwave heating -- appear VERY bright – and BSD M. is the world leader in the technology! But, do your own DD, of course. |
