Different approach to predict Q1 2013 based on Adduplex data. Even more impressive results.
By kamal / April 9, 2013
nokiapoweruser.com
First of all, someone asked in the comments about the basis of 21 million WP7.5 and WP8 devices by Q4 2012, so here it goes. It is based on the WP smartphones volume revealed by IDC from Q4 2011, when Lumia 800 was launched through Q4 2012,
2.75+3.3+5.4+3.6+6= 21.5 million WP7.5 and WP8 devices considering Q4 2011 to Q4 2012 figures.
Now, we thought of predicting Q1 2013 once again now by taking a different approach from our last post where, we tried to calculate volume of individual smartphones. If you remember, in January statistics, WP8 had a market share of 19% which has grown to 43% in April statistics. Now, based on the above chart by volume of WP7 devices by Q4 2012 = 17 million. Now assuming in Q1 2013, Lumia WP7 devices have sold 1.5 to 2 million units (Conservative), WP7 devices volume by Q1 2013 = 18.5 million, which is 57% according to the April chart.
Hence from April statistics, overall WP7 and WP8 volume by Q1 2013 = 18.5/0.57= 32.5 million units
So, Total WP devices sold in Q1 2013, 32.5-21 = 11.5 million, out of which WP8 devices sold = 32.5 * 0.43 – 3.8 =10 million
So, it seems if we use Adduplex data then by whichever approach, we will reach to a really encouraging 10-11 million WP smartphone sales during Q1 2013. Out of which, Nokia can certainly claim 8 to 8.8 million unit sales. You can read our alternate approach in our previous article,
http://nokiapoweruser.com/2013/04/09/nokia-q1-2013-predictions-based-on-adduplex-data-for-april-2013-lumia-920-top-sold-wp-device/
Disclaimer: It all depends on the accuracy of Adduplex data and we will certainly validate it once Nokia reveals Q1 results!!. |
