Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives

SPY 694.04

+0.7%

Jan 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (48593)	4/12/2013 10:35:45 AM
From: robert b furman	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 221611

There are two scenarios out there, 1) Da chief's where we've completed a running flat correction and about to explode up - this correction would be 2-3 % and quick - high volatility into next week's option expiration and earnings get serious. 2)We are finishing up a terminal wave v of the big runup - with a larger corrective wave 4 due soon.That would be a bigger retrace and much longer - 15% and 1400 SPX?.This is the" Fintas view". I'm out of my short term positions - hoping for Fintas' view to become reality - with my core holding long and not in any consideration of selling (dividend payers). We have for a long time not had any contribution from rreal estate, and here in Texas I see a lot of growth and projects. This supports a longer view of growth and better employment - we here in Houston are definately benefitting from the fracing of shale. As you know my dealership sells commercial trucks and we are getting huge orders from the oil patch - hundreds of trucks going every where in the country literally. Oil E&P is huge when WTI is 90 and above. Real estate is beginning to show and contribute. It appears to me we are in a sweet spot of a recovering real estate market and a boom from natural resource harvesting. Given time I believe chief's view is correct. That being said I remember the dip in 1998 which was blamed on "asian contagion". It provided a final shakeout of tech which was about to have a generation run up as the internet build out was just beginning to be understood. So the boys always like a discount sale before the big run up.It is to be expected - Fintas does - I think he is prudent. I for the first time in a long time can see the smart phone revolution really helping tech get back to growth, as these devices drop in price and become embraced by the now more numerous and greater markets of burgeoning middle classes on a global scale (emerging markets in addition to: N. America, Japan and Europe). This is the true demographic that is least discussed and inevitably a powerful driver of almost exponential wealth creation. So I've dodged your answer except to say - any dip is a great opportunity to add to. There could be a small dip and one could scale in 1/3 of desired adds - if the dip goes 15 %, use the other 2/3 dry powder to sell puts with the idea of buying great stocks that pay a dividend and lock in the only low tax rate you'll have next year and on. The long term is more exciting than any news service will suggest. Bob ,

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