Sam Finta, re:AMD for next 12 months
Here's the positives and negatives:
1. Imminent intro (December) of first notebook chips using 0.25 um process. You could argue that Intel was 3 months earlier than AMD, but AMD chips will be 266 and possibly 300 MHz. Potential negative: low production volume or no 300MHz chip before Intel has a 266MHz notebook chip.
2. Compaq K6-233 computers selling like hotcakes post-Christmas. Since this news has leaked, they may introduce earlier also.
3. K6-3D chip in Q1, 1998. Extremely positive if computers using 300MHz K6-3D are available before Intel machines using Pentium II-333
4. Increasing production volumes during late '97 and 1998. Shipped 1M K6's in Q3, expect 1.5 to 1.7M Q4 (1.5M=negative, 1.6M=slightly positive, >1.7M=very positive). I'll be happy with 20-30% increase in K6's each quarter.
Potential overall negatives: Delay in Microsoft support for K6-3D, poor ramp of 0.25 um process (less likely than problems which occured with original K6 because die size is 1/3 to 1/2 as big=less defect problems), instruction incompatibility problems (i.e., "errata"), problems with chipset manufacturers getting 100MHz bus to work during Q1 (this would make K6-3D slower than Pentium II-300 on straight business applications).
To summarize, the two biggest positives for AMD in 1998 are
1. Almost certainly, the FASTEST NOTEBOOK CHIP AVAILABLE for at least 4 months
2. Being from one speed grade behind to one speed grade ahead of Intel in Desktop CPU's. Intel has always priced their TWO fastest chips at very high prices relative to their other chips. By contrast, currently AMD is 2.5 speed grades behind Intel since K6-233 is slightly slower than P2-233 and definitely slower than 266, 300.
Timing -- a further test below 20 is possible with tax loss selling and the very weak SOX index, but I intend to pick up some AMD before the end of the year.
Petz |
