let me see
the squid and media wants us to know that
(i) gold down = economy up, dollar up, american manufacturing up, empire energy independence up
(ii) silver down = sympathy w/ gold and counter-trend to economy up
(iii) platinum down = sympathy w/ gold and silver, and distaste for obvious auto production ramp that would follow economy up
(iv) palladium down = sympathy w/ gold, silver, and platinum, and ignorant that economy is up
(v) jgb rate down = yield should drop given that govt courting targeted inflation - pay no attention that the only inflation working is the one that has been generated via import by weaker currency
(vi) china growth down = china cannot build any more, even as it needs to build more, but forgot how to use paper, ink, and printing press, even as it is running out of labour, or have too much labor, or something
(vii) usa housing recovery heading in the opposite direction = nothing to do w/ unserviceable student loans, yield-destroying economy, and is just a pause that refreshes
(viii) unemployment is down = economy heading up, and more folks can now work as burger-flippers, or take early retirement to watch american idol and the kardashians, and as indication, netflix is up 2% when everything else is down
(ix) general equities heading down = .... eh ... let me think ... oh, yes, because the economy is up, interest rate shall rise, and that would be bad for shares
perhaps another truth is much simpler
(a) the forces of diaper deflation is strong (i.e. japan can announce 100% dilution and the jgb yield heads ... not up but down; europe can announce coming confiscation and euro remains strong as opposed to be in toilet)
(b) asset classes correlation = 1.0
(c) geographic correlation = 1.0 with time lag as each domain tries to inflate in choreographed sequence
(d) global zirp money driven by official-intervention 'markets' give rise to an unfamiliar arena where we were duking it out in unreal tournament arena and find ourselves in super mario bothers' landscape - unfamiliar
(e) ever slightest general market jiggle with progressively less wiggle produces always immediate cries for still more liquidity, and each tranche needing to be larger than the previous else "not enough" is heard from all
(f) 2008 here we come, held off only by still-strong and essentially concerted actions of usa, europe, japan, and china
(g) as long as the 4 keeping pissing in the away-direction and not on each other, the paper gaming can continue, but each tranche of liquidity must be larger by imperative, and the efficacy duration is shorter
(h) diaoyu island, n.korea, and whatever threatens the delicate equilibrium of cooperation
recommendation: getgold, and make the getting of gold self-sustainable, i.e. keeping getting gold at 0.3 oz cost to the oz gotten
at some point the gaming would not be about weight of balance sheet and diameter of weapons calibre, but only about availability of the "p" in the p&l, and the any in-hand weapon - even a slingshot should do against fellow speculators hardly moving and just only whimpering
think in terms of 2008 but extended in duration when paper money fails and zero-state reset must be tee-ed up per rule by making up rules.
time line, 2016-2028, after which, the darkest interregnum should follow, during which empires fall apart and kingdoms rise plenty.
am enthusiastic |
