I don't see any predictions.
I don't think we'll see a run up soon. Too much technical damage has been done.
In my estimation, and in that of gurus I trust, the recent unpleasantness was a mo-mo-momentum event caused by a breach of a significant price level - 1520. Once it was breached, many stops could be taken out, and the cascading game was on.
The signal was the Squid calling for short sales.
I discount the conspiracy theories. No Cyprus and its minuscule gold hoard, nothing of the sort. But bugs are a cynical, conspiratorially minded lot so there is a lot of commentary along those lines. In my view, it was simply an opportunity which was recognized by very aggressive shorters who were very successful.
It happens on occasion. All the signs were plainly there for anyone to see, though hindsight is of course better. Stops at 1520 should have been in place for all who were in gold. I did not have them as I have been preoccupied more with work and other things than anything else.
End of the world? No indeed. Fundamentals are still positive - negative interest rates still prevail and will be with us for a very long time, printing is excessive, currencies are being competitively devaluated, growth is weak, Europe is still a basket case (esp. France whose bonds are laughably priced), inflation measures are a joke, etc., etc.
Some were indeed looking for speculative bubble profits in gold. Not me, though I wouldn't have refused them.
Someone has written a very provocative piece I will link later in which the argument is made that gold has made its bullish parabolic move. I have doubts that the math bears this out, but I will look at it with more discernment later and will comment.
In the meantime, there are huge distortions caused by the interventionist CBs. Capital is being magnificently misallocated and bubbles being created.
It will not end well.
That will be when you will want gold. |
