I posted the wrong number.
Guys, somebody stop me when I make a stupid posting mistake. I said Flextronics could do $400M in revenues in the current quarter. I meant to say they should do more than $300M. They only did $210M in the SepQ just completed, so this is quite a sequential increase. I posted an estimate earlier:
Message 2625120
Since then I've found out some of the new plants have business on consignment basis, so the revenues might be less, but the profit margin might be higher. Without knowing the mix of business better than I do, can't really estimate the bottom line. But that never stopped me from guestimating.
The final profit margin will be impacted by one time charge from the Neutronics acquisition, interest charges, new consignment business, etc that make it hard to predict. But if they get at least the same 5.6% margin before taxes, amortization of goodwill, and interest, this could equal 80 cents a share. After taxes, goodwill, and interest, and ignoring the one time charges, we could see 3.6% net profit, or over 50 cents a share fully diluted using 21M shares. Seems to me the consensus estimate of 45 cents is a bit light. But it depends on the accounting of the Neutronics purchase; perhaps most analysts haven't included it in their analyses yet.
BTW, if the net profit margin improves to 4.0%, then we would see 57 cents a share. And as the revenues grow next year toward the $400M a quarter rate, we should see this net margin or better. Looks very interesting to me.
Paul |
