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Technology Stocks : Wind River Systems - Technical Analysis

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To: Peter Church who wrote (82)12/5/1997 2:56:00 AM
From: Mitchell Jones  Read Replies (1) of 431
 
I agree with your analysis to the extent that WIND's current range seems to discount future earnings in a realistic way.

Several revenue sources we anticipated last year are not clearly on the horizon and I believe the share price is adjusting to that fact.

I cite the following as examples of those sources:

1. The NC OS. My personal belief was that we would be about to cash in on the NC movement,but the picture is murky at best. It is not clear to me that the NC is making the impact I expected and even less clear that WIND will end up "on top" in the OS contest.

2. The automotive market is not developing along the lines I had hoped... their reluctance to accept a royalty based arrangement is preventing WIND from penetrating that market in the way we would all like to see.This is a good area for our new marketing manager to win his spurs. He needs to facilitate an arrangement acceptable to Ron Abelmann and the automotive industry.

3. Qualcomm is not developing into the kind of potential I had hoped for . The real money for WIND is in the handset end of their business and I don't see progress in that area yet. It may happen,but not yet.

Offsetting these is the fact that I2O seems to have even greater potential than we expected last year and the HP "JetSend" may turn out to be very large indeed.

Management has chosen an earnings' growth rate that they believe is sustainable. It seems to be in the 50 to 60 percent range rather than the 75 percent range that we had been tending toward.It's hard to fault that kind of earnings growth rate. I still don't see anything a lot better.

Mitch
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