Fwco: “One thing we don't know is, of what does the market of $2.4 billion consist? Only I/O medical instruments? Or, the full value of I/O procedures?
Those questions have not been answered to my satisfaction.”
While I have also pondered those questions, I believe the issue is reasonably well settled by the following market reports. They clearly are for the medical device markets.
http://www.hifumedicalexpert.com/blog/wp-content/uploads_temp/Ablation_Devices_Market_to_2016_-_Global_Trends__Competitive_Analysis.pdf
Title: Ablation Devices Market to 2016
GLOBAL MARKET FORECAST & TRENDS ANALYSIS
BY TECHNOLOGY, DEVICES & APPLICATIONS
Page 48 shows a table for Radiofrequency Ablation (device) markets. For 2011 the World market size shown is a bit over $1.4 Billion. For Europe and “APAC” about $550 Million – which would be approximately the market covered by the Terumo agreement. About 15% per year compounded growth is projected, so for 2013, That $550 Million market for Terumo is expected to become about $730 million. AND, -- very important to remember! – the advanced (more effective and safer) MTX-180 can be expected to garner a larger share from ablation devices other than RFA. Further, the above report does not cover MWA (but, perhaps it is lumped in with RFA), which is proven to be much superior to RFA – and the MTX-180 is proven best of the MWA machines by a wide margin! AND, of course, the agreement covers years well beyond 2013.
Also, review Post 4045, which presents reasonably consistent estimates from another report:
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=222&mn=4045&pt=msg&mid=12676620
In light of these two reports, the $1 Billion market mentioned in the NR for the Terumo agreement is quite reasonable. And, adding the Americas (to be covered by BSD M.?) would essentially double that number (see the chart linked in the first reference, above). |
