Roger's 1997 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks

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To: purecntry5 who wrote (7866)	12/5/1997 9:32:00 AM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (2) of 9285

WHO IS RIGHT? I JUST DON"T GET IT! IMO, some people out there are a bit too optimistic. The Asian crisis hits and it is said it will have minimal impact on the US. You know the US is a service economy; banks, brokers, AOL, phone companies, etc. etc etc. If anything. the price of imports will go down and our imports won't suffer much (even Greenspan said this!). I guess the Asians just don't follow exchange rates and price their goods in local currency. They don't have a hint about the rules of prices-interest-exchange rate parity... If you have lived in an inflation/devaluation driven country for some time [like I have] you will know that even the little guy at the computer store brings out his calculator to calculate the dollar based daily price of whatever it is you want to buy! Now the employment report comes out and all of a sudden Asian is important and will play an important role in slowing down the economy!.... I thought the same guys had said the US was a service economy and that the Asia slowdown will not affect us..... So no matter what happens.... some people will always find an interesting bullish twist. One more.... never mind the crummy world fundamentals, funds coming into the market will hold things up! Well I don't think this will work for ever... IMO the artificially high market creates a tremendous opportunity for shorts!!! Now this is just my humble [crazy?]opinion. I do have a net long exposure and most of my shorts, IMO, are shorts that should go down in any market. However, I still have a tremendous itch to short my former employer: PG Pancho

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