Here is what bugs me..... .................... ................... .
Gold prognosticators were pounding the table last fall, winter and earlier this year - that 2500 was just around the corner and the bolder ones claiming that 3000, 5000 or 10,000 were a possibility.
But alas, doesn't anyone look at history and think? I mean several times I have seen Dan Norcini post this monthly gold chart and THEN in it he's seeing a further run up in POG? Huh? I mean, maybe it is just me and the way I look at things, but can't any one see that the asymptotic "rocket ride" up in POG during the 1979 - 1980 period that sure looks like it was repeated recently? The similarities of these two periods is striking to me - but hey, maybe I'm just jaded? Maybe "it is different this time?" Oh and anyone see any similarity between the areas noted by the orange circles?
But hey, let's take the scale out of it and see what kind of correlation we get? [Best I could do is a graphical representation as the WGC data only seems to go back to 1978 these days. Sigh. IF I could get the data back to 1970, I'd plot the two periods on the same chart and put one period on the left scale and the other period on the right scale. But alas, all you gets is this crude facsimile.]
So how does this look? Darn near a perfect match on the curve - only this time we got lucky and ran a bit longer.
[one may need to scroll around/over to see the whole chart?}
But don't forget those peaks at the top that so far have a pretty similarity. Let's look at that next...
But what if we blow up the 1980 data in an attempt to get the scales to match, what then? Does this tell us anything about the potential for POG?
So I sure get the "hope" and anticipation that are so human in us all. I too can see a case for some kind of IT rebound. But alas, what bugs me are these charts...
What is a bubble?
When does it burst?
Have we seen the ultimate downside?
How long does it take for this pattern to resolve?
Is it possible that the upside is so grand that this jarring drop of 600 points only appears as a blip on LT charts in the future?
Just think, ye sojourners, just think. |
