| I think we're seeing a new trend in PMs... in addition to the volatility (which is part of any trend reversal, yes?), I think there's a fundamental trend change in the overall investing universe... I am not saying the following is true, but the perception of it is getting some traction: people are not seeing the promised currency inflation from years of near-zero interest rates at the Fed, they aren't seeing what their minds and guts tell them should be happening to currencies at all... but they are seeing the near-zero income from their old/traditional safe havens (and now also seeing a possible trend break in cap gains on PMs), so they are chasing income/yield in the markets, rotating out of bonds and PMs to some degree... now, I'm not talking about retail investors because I don't think they make up any significant portion of the total investment dollars in the markets -- I'm talking the institutions and big money piles. I'm seeing new highs almost across the board in defensive stocks (e.g., PG, JNJ, KO, etc.)... add in the fact that the vast majority of trading is by algos now and I don't see many bright spots in the future of PMs... at best -- and this is my hope -- I think PMs will be rebuilding/basing at some level before resuming their bull trend... Keynesians are coming out from under their rocks and saying, "see, we told you there was nothing to fear wrt stimulus/easing"... but they may be very premature as these sorts of things often take a decade or more to play out and the longer we see QE at the CBs, the longer it may take to see the end effects. Only way to play this PM market is to be the nimble trader (as usual?)... though I still like having significant metal in my possession, I am treating the miners with very twitchy fingers -- like handling nitro-glycerin... but I have to say that some of the miners are hitting share price levels that seem waaaay over done here considering the share prices in some cases are below 2006 levels and yet the underlying metal price is almost double that of 2006 and surely capex/opex has not doubled in 7 years? But maybe I'm very wrong. I notice that outfits like RGLD have held up pretty well, so maybe there's a message there, compared to say the GGs of the world. |
