Get next Clipper well online and be cashflow positive....Cut many excessive costs from prior bad mgmt during BK.....(that has already happened and will continue) sell off some assets in the future after making deal with ORRI holders to discount and go away.....Not at fire sale prices.....win lawsuit against US Gov for the $65 million....Make deal with Bondholders on $1.5 bil debt for .30 +/- cash and 200-300 million additional shares....Make deal with unsecured creditors for .20 cash and stock.....With expenses cleaned up, bad mgmt gone, Revenue of $750+ million annually and interest cut to less than $100 mil per year after deals made, this company has potential to make everyone whole with $4 share price in the future....make $150 mil profit on $750mil revenue and with 400 million shares outstanding after restructure, that would be .37 per share in earnings and at 12 multiple you have $4+ stock....FAR from the old days but the 250 million shares given to bond holders in return for their now worthless paper if fire sale occurs, they are whole....same with creditors....The KEY to this happening in my HOPING opinion, is the Clipper wells producing strongly, getting deal done to re open Gomez and showing cash flow by June......Then they are prepared to stand vs BP and get real money that they deserve.......This will not be easy and may not happen at all, but this is a possible scenario that should be given a chance, AS LONG AS THE CLIPPER WELLS PERFORM....If not, all bets (and Hope) is gone in my opinion, UNLESS a large BP settlement of the $3.1 Bil lawsuit.......
I am LONG....do your own due dilligence......I am willing to take this RISK...... |
