ATPG Shareholders Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : ATPG Shareholders

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To: BuckeyeOil who wrote (3076)	5/2/2013 11:30:35 AM
From: Positron	2 Recommendations Read Replies (3) of 3620

OK, help me out this one detail from your optimistic scenario: >Make deal with Bondholders on $1.5 bil debt for .30 +/- cash and 200-300 million additional shares.... >Make deal with unsecured creditors for .20 cash and stock..... where the heck does the debtor get $450 million in cash (0.3 * $1.5b) to make the 2nd lien go away? for that matter, where does the debtor get the other $700+ million to satisfy the DIP? in case you didn't notice, from the latest MOR, there's less than $20 million in cash currently on the balance sheet. don't get me wrong -- i'd love for this pig to somehow reverse fortunes. i'm underwater on the 2nd lien bonds... i'm continuing to hold them because there's little to be gained from selling at this point, and i think there's still a non-zero chance of the 2nds not getting completely wiped. my optimistic scenario is something like this: -auction plan falls through due to no acceptable bids (looking quite likely) -ORRI/NPI rulings in favor of ATPG (still quite possible) -DIP realizes they can't put enough lipstick on this pig to get their money back in a liquidation, and decides to push for reorganization, with at least a portion of the DIP loan rolled into secured debt in newco. (this one is the toughie) -2nd lien gets equity shares in newco. unsecured, preferred, and common basically gets wiped. if everything went right, maybe you could get 20-30 cents on the dollar in stock for the 2nd lien. maybe.

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