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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob
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To: kidl who wrote (100034)5/2/2013 3:22:25 PM
From: George Statham  Read Replies (1) of 100058
 
Interesting Aussie chart. There was no seasonal effect up until about 1970. For the next 40 years the off season return is basically zero while November thru May is roughly 10 fold. That would be about 6% per year. We don't know what inflation and interest rates were or if dividends are factored in. So that might be better or worse than the nominal return. For other international markets, I wonder if seasonal correlations with the US market start around that time period. Maybe that marks when market investing became more global.

In the future, maybe Carnival, monsoons and Chinese new year will affect seasonality more than US school year, summer vacations and pension/retirement fund influx.
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