So...... here I sit at my 'puter on a Sunday morning, suffering from severe "stock market withdrawal syndrome". I don't know if I can make it thru the week end. I need an active stock ticker! I need to see bids and asks!
Then I noticed a post from you about gold and silver! Thanks! :)
I had every reason to believe gold would begin moving higher since I finally did have a gold buy signal appear on Friday, that signal was triggered, but it failed... a failed signal is generally not a good sign... this is why I finally dumped it and reinstated the short position... I stare at your chart. Notice a three day up trend. Notice that both gld and slv held their gains on Friday. I try to figure out what speaks to you on your charts, but can't. Not to worry. I am seldom right at timing the market. I am still kicking myself for bailing out of this current rally too early in April! :(
we could see gold try again, but I'll just stay short until the next signal is triggered... I can't wait until Monday. I would love to get back in at a much lower price.
Damn it, I need a stock ticker going by on my screen!
mind you, in the chart below, my signal has nothing to do with that support/resistance line, but I find it interesting that my model had a failed buy signal right at that line... I usually trade by momentum and volume. If trading dips down, followed by heavier volume, it's usually a buy signal for me. Then if it bounces up I cash in. Most times, I cash in too early giving up profits.
Having a working model, like you have developed, is a much better system, and I know that your model was developed thru much work, study, evaluation and analysis on your part. Congratulations on your success and your analytical prowess! And...... thanks for being willing to share! :)
but, the chart does tell the story... and silver chart below is even weaker... I think that I am beginning to understand. You are looking at both short term and longer term probabilities. I look at the charts and see a definite uptrend, especially considering the very heavy volume at the bottom of the move down. But..... I have no idea, or feeling for which way from here. My strategy of holding and then buy portions if a holding takes a dump has worked, but sometimes takes a long, long time to work.
I am really looking forward to Monday to see what happens next!
I suspect the bottom is not yet in place, but time will tell... another buy signal which would also be confirmed would tell me the bottom is already in place... until then, I think the rally was just a bounce... we'll both know soon enough... Probabilities, probabilities, probabilities... It kinda reminds me of my earlier days in Vegas, when I was mentally able to count cards at the blackjack table. Counting cards only gives a tiny edge of around 2% or so. Your model does much better than that! I remember sitting at a blackjack table, teaching the kid next to me how to count cards. The dealer, a very cute girl, leaned over and told me that I had better leave. I did not follow her advice. She then proceeded to deal me about 10 losing hands in a row. Needless to say, I got up and left.
I'll be looking forward to gld and slv moves and your posts next week. In the meantime, I'll sit here, read your post a few more times and stare at your charts!
Thanks again for your information and analysis! Enjoy the rest of Sunday. Tis a cool, cool morning today! Went to Publix and loved the brisk breeze! :)
|
