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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market

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To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (10262)	12/5/1997 1:11:00 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) of 18056

The "asian flu" has the "asian cure" - and the Asian market was up across the board tonight. In order to drop substantially this market has to have its own problems. Note that so far the US market was the most immune to the asian flu. Other markets (Europe, for example) dropped more. The dollar climbed against most currencies with the exception of british pound. This was the time to be short SEA, not US market. An example which comes to mind is Japan - late 1987. It was in a bubble, dropped in the 1987 crash - then continued to climb for 2 more years. The lesson that I have extracted from this - never underestimate how insane the market can get. Like with stocks - Yahoo! Secular trends, the ones this thread is talking about - take time to develop. I agree, the probability of the next bear trend to start within the next 5 years is close to 100%. But what if it starts in 2-3 years? You'll get wiped out. I use shorts as a hedge until I see a "broken bubble", or a technical break down.

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