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Technology Stocks : Creative Labs (CREAF)
CREAF 0.448-4.6%Dec 17 12:59 PM EST

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To: David Beckett who wrote (6568)12/5/1997 3:04:00 PM
From: Hitch  Read Replies (1) of 13925
 
Just some odds n ends

7/01/97 S'pore $ 1.430/ US$----Yen 114.80/US$........
12/05/97 S'pore $ 1.610/ US$----Yen 129.30/US$........

Creative according to DMG sources DVD machines from Panasonic and Toshiba and orders are placed on a weekly basis ie.Little inventory cost and benefit from weakening Yen.

Substantial majority of Creaf components for all products are purchased from SE Asia corps. (weakening local currencies = lower real cost. to CREAF)

Much has been made of the decline in sales in SE Asia and perhaps a slowing in sales in South America.
PER DMG '97 sales break down as follows-- 3% Singapore, 50% America, 26% Europe, 21% rest of the world.

Sim has suggested 10-15% revenue growth for this quarter and FY98 as a whole.

Assume the analysts are correct and we have a 20% slowdown in non US/Europe sales----20% x 24% = decline of 4.8% of total sales...
in weak currency areas.

Assume Sim is correct and the US/Europe market increases by 10%...
10%x 76% = overall sales increase of 7.6%....
7.6 - 4.8 = +2.8% overall sales increase, this is using the most drastic % decline in SE Asia sales that I have seen, and the minimum sales increase indicated by SIM.

It would appear that we can expect a sales mix as follows---80% US/Europe,... 20% Rest of the world.

So it would appear that CREAF will sell 80% of it's products in regions with strong currencies and purchase a substantial majority of it's components from companies located in regions with weak currencies. (that sounds like margin expansion to me)

The US dollar has gained approx. 12% versus the YEN since 7/1/97 and 12.5% versus the S'pore dollar in that same period.

As I said,, just some odds n ends

Hitch
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