Michael,
Thanks for your QNTM DLT analysis. I don't
disagree with your approach, though I would
not add anything for QNTMs DD business at this time.
I would caution that 50-100% DLT growth won't continue
indefinitely. Do you follow other tape drive companies
(EXBT?, HWP?, MMM?) and their progress in the area?
I will be watching the DD companies and might buy at some
point. If you follow QNTM thread, you'll find enough bulls
there. I think that you have one of the better approaches
to the DD area. The mindless approaches: "It's going out of
business - SELL!", or "It's WAY undervalued - BUY!"
do not work.
I've been through semiequip downcycle, where
ASYT and AMAT yielded 4-5 baggers while TRKN and
SUBM were victims. I've looked at the networker drop this
spring where BAY and CSCO came back, but
SHVA did not. Finding winners in a cyclical drop
is difficult, unless you buy acknowledged leaders that
are almost never cheap (CSCO, AMAT, INTC, MSFT).
I am a little frustrated with the monthly trading
necessary with tech stocks. I am starting to
appreciate Buffett's buy-and-hold of great companies.
The tech stocks are no buy-and-holds - with
very few exceptions like CSCO, INTC, MSFT.
Here is my latest tech stock investing approach:
If you ask yourself, "Should I sell?" - You should.
If you ask yourself, "Should I buy?" - You shouldn't.
:-))))
It works even better if you elaborate:
If you ask yourself, "Should I sell to take a profit?"
- You should.
But what if I miss the BIG run-up?
- You won't.
- Leave 50 shares in a sock.
If you ask yourself, "Should I buy?"
- You should... 20 points lower.
But what if I miss the GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY?
- You won't.
- Wait. Even GREATER BUYING OPPORTUNITY will happen
in... 3 months
- Buy 50 shares and get a night's sleep.
:-)))
Good luck
Raimondas |
