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Strategies & Market Trends : The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude

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To: ivan solotaroff who wrote (8862)12/5/1997 3:29:00 PM
From: Esteban  Read Replies (1) of 79308
 
Ivan,

You have hit my dilemna right on the head here with your comments about SGI. And brightened my day with some laughter too. Fortunately, the price is well above the trendline, so I don't have to decide right now. But I probably should, so I'm ready when the time comes.

SGI's chart looks worthy of more than a PGDCEB play in some respects. It made a double bottom at 100% retracement of it's April 97 low, and with this move of the last few days it's broken the last minor high of the current downtrend, two important signs of a serious trend reversal, IMHO.

You summed up the fundamentals nicely: it is a real company that is eventually worth far more than $14 and change. But I've found that fundamentals are hard to trade and often only pan out after I finally give up, or else just erode to the reflect the reduced price value.

It's not an easy call whether to go for more than the PGDCEB or not, but I'll make it based on TA. As far as playing the PGDCEB trendline, the cat has gotten so far above it that 1/2 or more of the profit would disappear if it fell below the trendline from here. Unless I draw a new steeper line from 12/3 and disregard the line drawn from 11/24. This is the part of the PGDCEB play that I am not so clear on. I've read most of Doug's posts on the topic and my consensus is that the big gainers have resulted from using the more conservative trendline that give the stock a chance to really move. Do you have a feel for this part of the equation?

Re: BOST. I haven't been following it. Do you consider it a PGDCEB? It's certainly fallen enough, but no 30% gap.

Are you interested in stalking some cats together? Maybe we can get a real feel for this phenomenon, and learn from discussing the candidates and strategy variations with another who likes the potential of this trading strategy.

Esteban
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