Excerpt from ASML's Q1 CC (held April 17)--on NAND supply additions (and I've added a couple of excerpts from AMAT's CC below)
Benedict Pang - Caris & Company, Inc., Research Division
Perfect. Okay, great. Secondly, on NAND. Both you and Lam are talking about this 100k worth of wafers added this year. If you just write a simple supply-demand, that's going to add a lot of NAND supply this year, such that it would really pretty dramatically change the NAND supply-demand balance, and it's hard to believe that Sendo's stock would be trading at a peak, if that was really true. So I'm just wondering, whether you think that the industry can physically add 100k worth of NAND wafers and still maintain supply-demand balance?
Eric Meurice - Chairman of Management Board, Chief Executive Officer and President
It's only 10%...
Peter Th. F. M. Wennink - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer, Executive Vice President and Member of Management Board
It's less than 10%.
Eric Meurice - Chairman of Management Board, Chief Executive Officer and President
It's less than 9% and 10% wafers. This is the only way to do 36% big growth. So at this moment, you will hear that they want to do even more than 36%. So technically, it makes sense. So you can imagine that, of course, if PC continues in the wrong trend. But on the other hand, look at the new PCs, their content in NAND is much bigger. So now this thing is going to be driven not so much unit of PC, but it will be driven by content per unit. And the content per unit is clearly going to double easily with the number of -- I mean, the need for solid-state drive minimum size. So it can be less conservative than us and take 10% less. But again, by the way, 10% less is one thing. So yes, I'm okay, with one machine less, plus or minus.
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Excerpt from AMAT's Q1 CC (held May 16)--on NAND capacity additions and a little on 3D/planar
Satya Kumar – Credit Suisse Securities ( USA) LLC
And Mike, I guess like on NAND, are you seeing much wafer capacity additions in the back half? Do you have an estimate for how much wafer capacity is, that you think is being in NAND Flash this year?
Michael R. Splinter
I don’t have a precise estimate, I think there’s still capacity expansion within existing fabs that’s everybody’s first move because 3D NAND isn’t ready yet and I don’t think we’ll see big expansions until we get to 3D NAND. And then as I said, we’ll see a build investment cycle in NAND, but I think most of that’s next year.
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Jagadish Iyer – Piper Jaffray, Inc.
I just wanted to find out how should we reconcile this with share gains that Mike alluded in the prepared remarks as you talk about the SAM growth in the front end, how much of it will be visible this year and how should we think about it going forward and then I have a follow up. Please.
Gary E. Dickerson
So the two major transitions that we are focused on right are the 20 nanometer gate-last transition, that’s going to really be more in 2014, maybe at the end of 2013 and the other one is in 3D memory and certainly that’s more – also more of a 2014 story.
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Ben Pang – B. Riley & Company
Okay. And then in terms of the 3D NAND, you mentioned some early shipments, second half of this year, is it easy for the customers to deploy that for planer if they want to or are there significantly different configurations for the tools that they’ve locked in, if they make a decision on 3D NAND right away?
Michael R. Splinter
Yeah, the customers that are making those early transitions are really focused on the 3D NAND technology, and they are very different. Some of these steps are very different than what you see in planer NAND.
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