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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends

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To: skinowski who wrote (2420)	5/21/2013 11:38:44 PM
From: POKERSAM	Read Replies (2) of 3209

skinowski - I agree completely. You described my bullish count which is UBER bullish. WOW. My focus is on EWP BUT I am not blind to the fundamentals and common sense. I see nothing fundamentally to make me think a continued bull market is in the works. Right now the S&P 500 Trailing Twelve Month PE is 19.2. These are known earnings, not hoped for earnings. Historical stats: Mean: 15.49 Median: 14.51 Earnings have been stagnant since Sept 2011. Earnings estimates are deteriorating. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-20/wtf-chart-day-its-all-about-earnings Now you tell me if stocks are cheap or expensive. Add to this that the Fed is expected to taper off QE in late summer and the markets look out 6-7 months. So it makes sense the markets would begin to discount the Fed slowing QE. Speaking of the Fed. The balance sheet at the Fed is 3.1 Trillion and 20% of GDP. This chicken will come home to roost. Google "Fed Balance Sheet" for a ton of charts . Consider that margin debt is at all time high levels last seen at the 07 high. Google "margin debt". The markets have gone up on BORROWED MONEY. Take $300K and borrow $700K and you can buy a million dollars worth of stock. All it takes is one good panic sell and the margin calls go out and forced liquidation plunges the markets into an abyss. The ice is very thin up here. Jumping up and down with excessive exuberance is not advised. So with all of this PLUS my wave count pointing to a major top in an on going secular bear market, I have to think the odds favor that we go down one more time. heh heh That's what I am thinking anyway. When the debt bubble bursts and it all comes crashing down everyone will say, " There was no way to see this coming." Yeah Right.

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