Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (10962)	12/5/1997 6:39:00 PM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (2) of 94695

GZ, keep your eye on the 3Mo/10Yr. spread. This is the most popular indicator at the Fed for yield curve inversions and a recession forecast tool. Today's spread action along Treasury curve was, I agree, very interesting. BTW, NY Fed Web site has two papers you might be interested in, one on the aforementioned spread and another on Head-and-Shoulders patterns in currency markets. Current Issues in Economics and Finance Jun-96 Volume 2, Number 7 The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions Arturo Estrella and Frederic S. Mishkin Staff Reports Aug-95 Number 4 Head and Shoulders: Not Just a Flaky Pattern C.L. Osler

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