Is this rumor thing good in your opinion???
or a better question.
What are you doing with it?
steve,
1. I hadn't planned on an acquisition rumor happening this week, so I'm just going to maintain whatever positions I have. If the stock fades, I don't see it fading all the way back to 22.
2. In terms of momentum, I think the rumor is fine. When things were spiraling down, not all of the bad news that came out was true, but the news (true and untrue) all seemed to be bad. Now, the issue has an upwards momentum (and it is about time). There is lots of true good news mixed in here: a 56K standard was reached, there is comfort in earnings for 4Q, there is comfort in earnings for 1998, there are sales to AT&T (maybe ATM) and there are sales to an unnamed RBOC. Some of the good news will be false or unverifiable, like the LU rumor. All of it goes to the creation of momentum on the upside. I guess that is just the way things go.
3. In terms of the acquisition rumor, I tend to think there is a grain of truth in all stories (e.g., in the stories my clients tell me, in the stories of the opposition, in rumor stories). That being the case, I do believe (and have for some time) that ASND is potentially in play. Maybe the rumor started from something having to do with a totally different suitor candidate (like CPQ). Maybe not. Regardless, ASND's valuation has to start to reflect the fact that, in addition to good fundamentals, it is attractive in a consolidating sector. If the LU rumor fades, ASND still remains in play. So what is the downside of hanging tight, particularly when the momentum finally has shifted to the upside.
Just my two cents, but then you asked!
Gary Korn |
