I think they will all rise in tandem, with DBA having the most volume, followed by COW and then CRBQ. I don't think I will enter any of them due to the lack of movement over time, but will instead play the commodities via equities, where I think proper selection based on trading float and volume will provide the highest return over time. I believe other commodities and metals will rise with CRBQ and the like. If I had to play an ag commodity ETF I like SGG...it's very oversold per the monthly chart, can move decently, and is showing some stabilization. Problem is it doesn't get much volume, but that can change with a change in trend.
Personally I'm in and will continue to accumulate the gold/silver miners with small floats such as ANV and SSRI. I am even accumulating a rather large holding of SMXMF, which I've played twice since the 2001. The monthly chart pattern is doing what it usually does before a move up, and if past history is a guide, it can move quickly and provide some decent returns over time. I'm also in CLF and WLT...the floats are right and they're beaten up. Also watching the rare earth metals like MCP and REE.
Right now I'd like to see some more improvement in the commodity sector. The Nikkei looks done to me, the Yen should rally, the general markets need a break, and gold needs to bounce from way oversold, even if it's just a DCB, the bounce should be a decent one.
I also like the solars, but they need to take a rest. All small floats, beaten up, and very good movement.
IMO of course. |
