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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends
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To: POKERSAM who wrote (2406)6/3/2013 8:55:57 AM
From: Fintas1 Recommendation   of 3209
 
Prophetic. Nice chart and now to see how those who buy on dips respond. I'm expecting them to defend their purchases and that will result in some bounces. BUT. I do not expect the 1687 ish to be hit again for a while.

Yes there's a lot of money to go to work but as they defend their buys at some point they will get to a point that the data before them and the % for their strategies will cease and down we will go. Like yourself I can see the decline in the fib retracement. And as you can see from the channel you drew it's not hard to see the pull back to the bottom of that channel to the 1400 area. You also capture the drop thru the channel with your RED ARROWS.

However if you were to look at the data using point and figure and using a value box size of 486/243/162 you may see it is very hard to penetrate as low as you suggest given the reversal counts.

That is why I do not suggest as low as you do re spx. I can see the 1134. I don't expect it.

I can see the 1260. I don't expect it.

But I do expect 1458/1405/1350 with an overshoot to spx 1305/1270 as a possible.

Time will tell. If it's as dire as it can be. I will not be surprised to see the 1270 hit. I WOULD be surprised to see under 1200.

Again a nice chart that even a BULL can understand should NOT be ignored and defense is required OR exploit the downside via puts, spy etc.

Fintas
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