Well thought out on your comments. A few thoughts. December is window dressing time. Institutional folks don't want to show a major position in a company that had a horrendous year as one of their holdings. So the big boys are dumping when the stock pops a bit.
Accordingly, I expect a nice rally in January now that we understand this behavior. Smaller, lesser known holders are now calling AAM a major turnaround play in process. I am holding.
Second, the company is being sued by its stockholders. Right or wrong, it scares people regardless of the fundamentals. ANother poor reason to sell. Trust in management is low until they have a second consecutive quarter of meeting estimates.
Third, AAM got shot with its cousins; MFN, CTYS, GNTR?, etc. Guilty by
association. Even MONE is way off its highs. IT ALWAYS CHANGES>>>>>
The short sellers did a great job of levering off of the fear.
Fourth, lower interest rates result in higher prepayment rates which can hurt earnings. However, in the case of AAM, their volume levels are excellent giving them the ability to replace. Also, their quality actually is better than most of their peers. They tightened their credit criteria.
Earnings come out in January. The shorts will have to cover, and we're back into the 20s. Until then, I'll be happy with $16.125 BY YEAR-END,TESTING PRIOR RECENT HIGHS.
fIFTH,This is an Excellent entry level for a new holder. I consider a sale highly probable. Everyone is waiting for Y/E earnings. |
