I would like to see this takeover happen as much as anyone but this is the 3rd time in 6 months the rumor has surfaced. The difference this time is the presenter was CNBC's pretty Maria. Is there any reason to think this time is different?
Larry,
You know I'm clueless. But I just think there is a grain of truth somewhere to be found in all the rumors and market action. The challenge is to figure out just what that grain of truth might be.
Think back about 3 weeks ago. ASND stock was intensely strong for 2 days circa 11/11 against an extremely down market. Something was in the works then, and it fizzled for some reason. People have conjectured BAY or IBM was making a bid. Maverick has conjectured that Ejabat fought off a hostile bid.
Now again, 12/4 and 12/5, intensely strong buying in conjunction with a public LU-based acquisition rumor.
What do these and other clues mean? My guess is that either ASND is unwillingly in play as a "target" or it is seeking a suitable strategic partner or, perhaps, both.
I'm still wondering whether the "grain of truth" behind Maria Bartolomo's story is that it stems from a leak as to an agreement that is in the works between ASND and another non-LU entity, like CPQ.
If ASND is in talks (and that is a big if), then, particularly given the timing of the most recent LU-based rumor, I would think that an announcement of a merger with some entity (my wager is on CPQ) would be planned for Internet World on 12/10-12/11.
If ASND is not in talks, then the timing of the LU-based rumor is just random, or perhaps related to still another unsolicited bid or, perhaps, just a creature of the options pit so they can sell more calls.
Nothing much to do but wait and see.
Gary Korn |
