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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation
WDC 163.00-0.4%3:59 PM EST
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To: Unwelcomeguest who wrote (55085)6/5/2013 2:08:43 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer  Read Replies (1) of 60323
 
UWG -- I'm less pessimistic than you, particularly in regard to ". . . the ROI for a major fab investment to make planar NAND . . ."

Planar NAND is at the core of SanDisk's strategy for the next two years or more. Though Samsung and Hynix and possibly others are bent on getting into 3D much faster, there is no guarantee that they can make a decent profit from this new technology. In fact, one of their incentives may be simply to avoid making royalty payments to SanDisk for MLC and possibly TLC.

It is also true, as noted by Sanjay in recent conference calls and analyst day presentations, that the cost savings from moving to 19 nm will be less than before because they are well along the way to converting to 19 nm. Factor in these reduced savings with the benefits from the devalued yen and you get a very strong probability of higher than average growth in profit margins as well as earnings.

There also may be some benefits if the shares momentarily decline to the low $50s because the company may be induced to buy back shares at that level, resulting in increased earnings per share in subsequent quarters. In a foundering market, pulled down by uncertainties over worldwide economic and political issues, I can see a possibility of going below $55, but the overall market conditions are much better than many analysts are willing to admit.

We should not be surprised if the stock moves past $70 before the end of the year.

Art
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