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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.
AAPL 260.21+0.3%Jan 12 3:59 PM EST
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To: slacker711 who wrote (154909)6/6/2013 9:27:21 AM
From: Ryan Bartholomew  Read Replies (1) of 213182
 
1) Carrier deals with NTT Docomo and China Mobile dramatically expand the total potential user base for the iPhone.

2) iPhone 5/5S margins improve through the FY as we saw with the 4/4S. I dont expect margins to return to 2012 levels, but I do expect substantial improvement from the first two quarters.

3) The cheaper iPhone is targeted specifically towards prepaid and sells 100 million units with only a small amount of cannibalization in the developed world outside of Europe.

4) A large screen iPhone debuts in the spring of 2014.

There are all sorts of other potential ancillary drivers but those are the major ones.



Good list, but all rely upon hardware profits. I believe they're set for a substantial fall unless they quickly adapt and become more efficient at making money from the *use* of their devices.

With respect to points #1, #3, and #4 - what magnitude in sales growth do you think is realistic from these?

For #2, you seriously see margins increasing despite the fact that their downfall has been intense margin pressure from competitors? I see it as financial suicide if Apple releases the next iPhone with higher margins *unless* it is absolutely jaw dropping in features and leap-frogs every device that has passed them. (That would be asking a lot... the iPhone 5 is essentially 18-month-old tech, as it was behind the curve when released.)
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