If COSFF ever reaches the level of SYCR, I will agree with you.
Until then, I strongly disagree with you.
In fact, after reviewing your posts on the SYCR thread (including the really early ones), I must admit that you are truly a buffoon who thinks he knows it all.
WARNING TO ALL, beware of this Rod character. He is negative by nature ! Ask anyone on the SYCR thread.
Best regards,
ah
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PS: To all the Corel believers...
I think it is time to focus on Corel again. I am starting to get a good feeling now that we have a new CFO (Mr. KPMG) and of course Don Sylvester (Mr. Dell) honing the corporate side of the business.
In any case, here is a worst case scenerio IMO:
Lets assume that enterprise R&D doesn't pan out. That is, Remagen (Connexus), VNC, and Alta have "no market".
What happens then ?
Mr. KPMG and Mr. Dell circle the wagons and focus on core products.
Mr. Dell delivers the following:
Productivity division generates 80M corporate and 60M retail. Graphics division generates 120M.
Total annual revenue = $260M.
Mr KPMG (bean counter) controls expenses as follows:
Advertising @ 40M
R&D @ 26M
SG&A @ 60M
Depreciation @ 30M
Total expenses = 156M
With a gross margin of 70%, Net Income (at a 35% tax rate) is 17M or 6.5% of sales.
With this worst case scenerio, is COSFF worth more than $2.25 US ? Is it worth more than the current P/S ratio of 0.4 ?
How about a "Blue Sky Scenerio". All of the R&D efforts start to kick in and enterprise revenues for 1998 amount to $100M. What is Corel worth then ?
Remember one thing..., So far more than $25M in Java revenue has been generated this year, and thats without any product in the market. All Java revenues have been licencing of development technologies.
The Vanni's and Rod's of this world will scare the heck out of you. They have no risk tolerance or vision.
Corel will survive.
Corel will either restructure or will prosper to new heights with its new products. Either way, it is currently far undervalued IMO. |
