Trey, IMHO it's a little early to establish an "investment" position, but I'm operating under the assumption that whatever net upside comes out of the Asian fallout on the industry-level won't be seen in pricing until Spring.
Then again, maybe the assumption that there will be an "upside" in the industry and that MU will reap some benefit is what's sort of kept MU from hitting its late-Oct. bottom despite the estimates coming down dramatically (thanks for the post Jim).
And then you also have to deal with how well MU executes on the firm-level.
I'm not "investment-oriented", but I guess I'd rather be a little late to the party and trade-off a few points of upside in exchange for evidence that my assumptions are more right than wrong.
If you really like the thing and somehow come to the conclusion that "the worst is over" (which I don't think is the case), maybe you buy the asset in tandem with some protective puts?
They're reporting soon, and the way I'm sizing it up the expectations are so bad going in that maybe this thing is setting up for the dreaded "bad earnings followed by short squeeze" scenario...in which case I'd probably short the retracement on the expectation that despite...alright this getting ugly, as there are obviously a number of scenarios and reading everyone's expectations is tough.
Suffice it to say that as usual "I don't know", but IMHO you're not crazy for thinking about re-evaluating MU, maybe just a little early.
And on MU, I'm better at picking tops anyway <g>
Good trading,
Tom |
