CALIBRATE PERFORMANCE
Todate my portfolio net value is up 21%,which is only slightly better than the 18% average for the IBD growth stock index.During the past 4 weeks my portfolio is up 2.5% versus down 1.8% for the IBD index.Over the same 4 week period it appears to me the prices of Y2K stocks are being primarily influenced by the markets perception of the downside risk associated. I looked at the charts over the past 4 weeks for 35 stocks associated with Y2K. 20 stocks essentially moved sideways in a trading range icluding IMRS,CHRZ,TPRO in my portfolio.Others in a trading range that are widely held include KEA,VIAS,PSFT.There are 11 stocks that moved down appreciably including,ZITL,DDIM,TSIM,SEEC,TPII,IAIC,SYNT,SYBS,CLMT. While I don't follow some of these stocks I believe it is fair to say most have high valuations,coupled with increasing skepticism that they may not have strong long term prospects.Only CPWR,ANLY, SSAX,AND SSW did well in the last 4 weeks.I don't know anything about the latter two. The first two have a strong base business.I feel very strongly that only a few Y2K stocks will be rewarded with appreciable price appreciation as there will be too many investors who will exit at the first smell of bad news.I believe also there will be few big winners as profit taking will hold down gains except for those stocks investors see have good prospects beyond the year 2000. We all have our favorites for big winners. On the top of my list is TPRO(which I yet don't own a lot of).I have not done as well this by investing in Y2K stocks as I hoped despite investing atleast 3 hours every day of my time. Many of you understand the technology much better than I do. I do have a keen quantitative insight into the significance of competitive position as a result of extensive studies I did with The Strategic Planning Institute data base known as the Profit Impact of Marketing Strategy(PIMS)(my AOL user name (PIMS1124). |
