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Technology Stocks : COMS & the Ghost of USRX w/ other STUFF
COMS 0.001300.0%Nov 7 11:47 AM EST

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To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (10283)12/6/1997 3:36:00 PM
From: Elroy  Read Replies (1) of 22053
 
Dwight Karlsen wrote:

<<This has to do with what? Were you going to send me an anniversary card?

No.

<<Would you make up your mind already? Did they know (channel inventory levels at the close of Q1)or did they not?

They said after 1Q that lowering inventory levels was a goal in 2Q, but they were unsure of the current level, especially internationally, because controls required to accurately determine channel inventories were not in place.

<<And did they explain to you that trying to lower channel inventories in the quarter may involve reducing shipments?

They didn't know whether they would have to reduce shipments until the end of the quarter, and at that point they were in the quiet period where they are not allowed to comment on the quarter. 3Com management is good, but they don't know the future. They can't say for sure at the beginning of the quarter what the channel sell out will be. All they can do is give their best guesstimate.

You've gotta realize that it's pretty difficult for a company's management to change estimate guidance in the middle of the quarter. It is safest for the company to not change guidance, and then pre-announce good/bad news after the quarter ends. That way, all investors get the information at the same time.

Often they don't know whether they will get huge orders in the last few weeks which will allow them to make the quarter or not. Given that there is a chance to make the quarter, I'd think most company's do not preannounce, but indicate something like making the quarter could be difficult. 3Com did this.
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