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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.

AAPL 271.50

+2.0%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Eric Yang who wrote (6643)	12/6/1997 4:02:00 PM
From: Richard Habib	Read Replies (3) of 213173

Eric, it's folks like you that make me nervous about being long on AAPL. I usually don't comment negatively on a stock I'm long on but in the last few weeks the reality distortion on this thread has been unbelievable. AAPLs only chance is a convergence with the Intel world. Any reasonably thinking individual would recognize that 3.5% market share and declining is not sustainable in the long or midterm run. Mac in the last month or so has lost the support of SSPS statistics software, Mathlab and Realplayer. The former two begin to throw real doubt on Mac as an education or engineering/scientific platform, the latter eliminates Mac as an Internet server for most people. The company may show a .01 or so profit but will most likely show a loss as analyst expect. Only on this thread can AAPL come out with things like the AAPL store which for an Intel guy is completely unimpressive and merely a stab at catching up to the Intel world and have people raving about it. Rhapsody is AAPLs future. Both Jobs and Ellison have seemly backed away from it in the last month or so by playing up the Mac OS. Jobs has done alright but is probably on the verge of screwing up as he has before because he seems completely incapable of understanding the average user. No self respecting prospective CEO is going to take on AAPL with Jobs over his shoulder - he will have to back far away from the operation and let a reasonable CEO make the reasonable determination that PPC is on it's last legs. If AAPL is left holding the bag when MOT or IBM announce severly reduced support for follow-on PPC development which is likely to happen at any time you'll see this stock in the single digits. AAPL has little time left to make radical changes. I still think they may pull it out but die hard Mac fans are probably as much a problem as a blessing. Rich

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