| | Big family gathering, so it is chaotic. But my SIN law said exactly what Wharfrat did. He was impressed with how Wharfrat organized the information.
He first noticed your chart only goes to 2,000, but said they are revising those things all the time as new information becomes available, and the moves are so dramatic in the aggregate, the blips mean nothing.
In addition, he is so cynical (along with me) about the general stupidity of mankind, he thinks we will meet some much larger devastation before we get to global warming disasters of the same magnitude e.g. Pakistan's unsecured nuclear capabilities or ME debacle.
<<Wharfrat et al:
It is interesting to see the lengths Denial Merchants will go to try to fool people. Take Anthony Watts for example. He used to have a battle between what he knows to be the case with climate change and what he 'wishes' to be the case, and most of the time let what he 'wished' determine what he presented and how he presented it.
 Message 28800237
Watts wants to stay stuck in the '70's.
GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP)Latest News2013-05-24: The time series and seasonal cycle plot tools have been restored. A problem with porting graphics software between servers led to a longer delay than we expected. We apologize for any inconvenience this may have caused.
2013-02-24: The GISTEMP maps and station data interactive plot tools have been restored.
2013-01-16: Starting with the January 2013 update, NCDC's ERSST v3b data will be used to estimate the surface air temperature anomalies over the ocean instead of a combination of Reynold's OISST (1982 to present) and data obtained from the Hadley Center (1880-1981).
2013-01-15: The December 2012 analysis has been performed, and graphs and table data have been posted here. NASA has issued a news release regarding the analysis of the 2012 calendar year.
See also the Updates to Analysis page.
GISTEMP Figures Graphs
Global Maps
Station Data
Time Series of Zonal Means
Seasonal Cycle of Zonal Means
Animations
HistoryThe basic GISS temperature analysis scheme was defined in the late 1970s by James Hansen when a method of estimating global temperature change was needed for comparison with one-dimensional global climate models. Most prior temperature analyses, notably those of Murray Mitchell, covered only 20-90°N latitudes. Our first published results ( Hansen et al. 1981) showed that, contrary to impressions from northern latitudes, global cooling after 1940 was small, and there was net global warming of about 0.4°C between the 1880s and 1970s.
The analysis method was documented in Hansen and Lebedeff (1987), showing that the correlation of temperature change was reasonably strong for stations separated by up to 1200 km, especially at middle and high latitudes. They obtained quantitative estimates of the error in annual and 5-year mean temperature change by sampling at station locations a spatially complete data set of a long run of a global climate model, which was shown to have realistic spatial and temporal variability.
This derived error bar only addressed the error due to incomplete spatial coverage of measurements. As there are other potential sources of error, such as urban warming near meteorological stations, etc., many other methods have been used to verify the approximate magnitude of inferred global warming. These methods include inference of surface temperature change from vertical temperature profiles in the ground (bore holes) at many sites around the world, rate of glacier retreat at many locations, and studies by several groups of the effect of urban and other local human influences on the global temperature record. All of these yield consistent estimates of the approximate magnitude of global warming, which now stands at about twice the magnitude that we reported in 1981. Further affirmation of the reality of the warming is its spatial distribution, which has largest values at locations remote from any local human influence, with a global pattern consistent with that expected for response to global climate forcings (larger in the Northern Hemisphere than the Southern Hemisphere, larger at high latitudes than low latitudes, larger over land than over ocean).
Some improvements in the analysis were made several years ago ( Hansen et al. 1999; Hansen et al. 2001), including use of satellite-observed night lights to determine which stations in the United States are located in urban and peri-urban areas, the long-term trends of those stations being adjusted to agree with long-term trends of nearby rural stations.
Current Analysis MethodThe current analysis uses satellite observed nightlights to identify measurement stations located in extreme darkness and adjust temperature trends of urban and peri-urban stations for non-climatic factors, verifying that urban effects on analyzed global change are small. A paper describing the current analysis was published ( Hansen et al. 2010) in Reviews of Geophysics in December 2010. The paper compares alternative analyses, and address questions about perception and reality of global warming. Alternative choices for the ocean data are tested. It is shown that global temperature change is sensitive to estimated temperature change in polar regions, where observations are limited. We suggest use of 12-month (and n×12) running mean temperature to fully remove the annual cycle and improve information content in temperature graphs. We conclude that global temperature continued to rise rapidly in the past decade, despite large year-to-year fluctuations associated with the El Niño-La Niña cycle of tropical ocean temperature. Record high global temperature during the period with instrumental data was reached in 2010. After that paper appeared, version 3 of the GHCN data became available. The current analysis is now based on the adjusted GHCN v3 data for the data over land. The ocean data are now based on NOAA ERSST for the sake of simplicity, replacing a prior concatenation of Hadley Center's HadSST1 and the satellite-based NOAA (Reynolds) OISST.
We maintain a running record of any modifications made to the analysis, available on our Updates to Analysis page.
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