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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: John Pitera who wrote (14206)

6/24/2013 4:25:07 AM

From: John Pitera

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Hi , I have been musing for several years that the SPX chart since 2000 may end up looking a lot like the DJIA chart from 1964 to 1982.....in Elliott wave terms, that was the last secular bear market... the chart is a mostly sideways chart ...showing a broadening top formation for the first half and then a contracting triangle that we broke out of in 1982-1983... If I also posted a constant dollar chart of the DJIA for the 64 to 82 time period we would see the massive downtrend and wealth destruction as measured by purchasing power by being over allocated to equities during that time period The key question is are we at the current point in time that corresponds to the nifty 50 top which peaked out at the start of 1973.... we are experiencing a very similar public mood in distrust of Government at all levels... concern about the administrations abuses of power, we had a nation and world sick of a very long and protracted cold war that had culminated in an extremely unpopular cold war.... Muslim - Jewish tensions were present.. widespread unemployment, underemployment... people not represented as wanting to be in the workforce who actually did want to be in the workforce.... we saw rising prices in food and energy prices..... back then the USA was getting closer to China ...opening relations with that country so as to triangulate against the USSR..... and currently we have the Chinese and the Russians triangulating the USA as most recently seen in NSA operative Snowdon.... moving from China to Russia..... The economies in Europe where stagnating and socialism was breeding a lack of productivity and innovation...we are seeing weak economies in Europe with the southern half being in extremely shaky condition. ....just a little food for thought on a very week..... one that sets us up for the real action which is to take place in Q 3 and Q 4... looking at the 4 year cycle we are in a very weak period for stocks.... Looking at the decennial cycle years ending in 4 are statistically weak years. And of course Yale Hirsch in his traders almanac is famous for his adage.. "SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY...... a few Monday morning data points to reflect and ruminate on. John Jacob Pitera

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