i think
(1) the world is waiting for something
(1-i) on the balance, the 'something' cannot apparently be anything good
(1-ii) many if not most had never recovered from the 2007-2008 hiccup, even as many financial professionals and enough passionate amateurs made out okay, so far
(1-iii) the central banks must say what they must and are saying in order to maintain credibility w/ the market, and as and when and if the credibility is lost, the true crisis (ala piigs / cyprus) commences, but 'converge-perfect-storm' from the periphery to the epi-centre(s) w/ full impact
(1-iv) so confidence and credibility must be maintained
(2) china has a plan re a chain of imperatives, starting w/ food production reform, impacting urbanization and infrastructure, and to be underpinned by monetary this and political that
(2-i) china has been executing the plan, is at a point of pause, to re-align, re-calibrate, and post way-point look-see, shall do what then must be done
(2-ii) china has the political leadership, social understanding, and savings to do what must be done, and what must be done is technically feasible even if not precisely easy, but not exactly difficult, only very big and a lot of very big
(2-iii) the lack of worry is not the same as the absence of concern, and the recognition of what needs doing is the majority of the solution to all problems / opportunities
(3) in the mean time, given the over-arching macro, the push deluge and the pull of vortex, the investing gamblers must be prudent, that
(3-i) diversification under conditions of manipulated / zirp money guarantees market return, namely 0%
(3-ii) concentration needed to move-the-dial assures destruction
(3-iii) refusal to engage must end in disaster but only over time
(4) given all of the above, china is the least of my concerns, and in fact is one of the very few places that can generate hope for the future, that its trajectory remain as was since 1982
so, in a word, "no", the overnight rate in china is not a worry, and not a concern, and only a few discussions away from resolution.
(5) but, yes, china hiccups and australia, brazil and a lot of places would get splat, and the worry of china hiccup can and have induced phantom splat especially in locales leveraged for straight-line china trajectory - a guess.
i think. |
